Passions of the Left
by Jorge Vargas
Venezuela's president, Hugo Chavez, has recently praised his Honduran counterpart for joining Chavez's Bolivarian Movement of Latin America. Note, of course, that to Bolivar, 'Latin America' did not exist for the liberator only dreamed of South America, realizing that the so-called nations of the American isthmus were, and remain, something of a joke - a miniature, sad version of South America, and thus of no importance for continental matters.
Who else belongs to this Bolivarian Movement? Bolivia, a nation currently on the verge of splitting in two as the Bolivian right - namely: Bolivia's elites - is involved in a bitter struggle against the Bolivian clown - namely: President Evo Morales. Ecuador - a nation that almost went to war with a Colombia that would destroy Ecuador on a battlefield and which requires the tacit support of her neighbors rather than their belligerence. Nicaragua, an unimportant nation destined for little more than union with her Central American sisters for that is the only way that she will survive.
The Bolivarian Movement attempted to have Mexico and Peru join her ranks in 2006, but thankfully for both of those nations, and for Latin America, Venezuela failed in this task.
Oh, and one must not forget the grandfather in the Bolivarian Movement: Cuba.
There are other members also somewhat involved in the Bolivarian Movement: Argentina and, perhaps more importantly, Brazil. With Argentina and Brazil come their protegés: Paraguay - Brazil's little brother - and Uruguay - Argentina's little brother. Chile, itself a relatively left-leaning nation, is also an ally of this Bolivarian Movement though Chile, as is her historical calling, remains aloof on most continental matters.
That leaves Colombia isolated as the pawn of the U.S.; and Panama - the only Central American nation of relative importance - and Peru remain as the two major Center Right nations along with Mexico, the would-be hegemon of Central America were it not for the U.S.
As the U.S. would see it there are nations of the Left in Latin America - Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Cuba, Ecuador, Honduras, Nicaragua, Paraguay, Uruguay, and Venezuela - and nations of the Right in Latin America - Colombia, Mexico, Panama, Peru.
But then, the U.S. was never one to go to for policy advice - these are the same individuals who thought invading Iraq would be a good idea.
The problem with the far left nations - the heart-and-soul members of the Bolivarian Movement, such as Bolivia and Venezuela - is that they have mixed in their passion for change with politics. Therefore, Bolivia is on the verge of collapse, Ecuador is not a serious country, Nicaragua is getting poorer, and Venezuela is becoming a pariah and losing her power play for dominance in South America's politics.
So who is winning the power play? The United States of America!
What a sense of humor.
The actual dominant force in South America is not at all Venezuela anymore, and it has not been the United States for the past 10-15 years. Luckily for us South Americans, South America is in a state of flux and there are several power plays going on.
Argentina, as always, believes herself to be the natural leader of the South Americans and for that very reason, she is not. More broadly, Mexico, some say, might be a natural leader for all of Latin America and there are moments when the Mexicans might feel this way, but after Mexico's signing of NAFTA with the U.S., those hopes for dominance were dashed.
At the Andean level, the power play is mostly being played out between Peru and Chile, and with Peru's recent economic growth along with her recent strong ties with Brazil, it appears as if that race is dead-locked. But neither of those nations can make legitimate claims for continental hegemony at present though the case may be different and more favorable - for both Peru and Chile - in 20 years.
That leaves Venezuela with her Bolivarian Movement and the United States with her dominance over Colombia, which is herself becoming a lone star state. It also leaves China, which, by this point, literally owns nearly half of Nicaragua and which invests in heavy infrastructure in Venezuela, and also in Colombia, Ecuador, and Panama. There is a serious player for regional hegemony.
But there is perhaps one other more important player: Brazil.
Brazil currently has the most stable economy in Latin America, and - with the exception of Canada, perhaps - one could expand that to the entire American Hemisphere. Brazil's military is slowly but surely expanding to a point where no nation in Latin America could credibly hope to challenge the Brazilians, except perhaps Argentina - it had to be said. Brazil's social welfare programs are expanding and following upon the highly successful European model and they are slowly but surely decreasing poverty throughout Brazil. In the meantime, Brazil also has enough that she can spend on the infrastructure required to host the 2014 FIFA World Cup, and Brazil has made a very serious bid for the 2016 Olympics to be held in Rio de Janeiro, the former capital of this up-and-coming Luso neo-hegemon. Oh, and the Brazilians, be honest Argentina, are the best footballers in the world.
In 15 to 20 years, Brazil will be a global superpower. Her rise is as certain as the fact that China is the global superpower today. Sorry, U.S.A, but you are on the verge of being reduced to a, thankfully for all of us and for you as well, has-been status, but it's not so bad: The British seem to like their has-been status.
How did Brazil reach this point?
How could it not? This is a nation that has the word 'progress' written on her flag, and which has always been obsessed with the idea of the future and of modernity, and which has always wanted to show up Mr. De Gaulle of France for comments made approximately 50 years ago, comments that still make dear old Brazil ache. 'Brazil is not a serious country.' Brazil is very much a serious country and soon she will find out that she has nothing left to prove, for the world will recognize just how serious she is.
And how did Brazil get to this point under the leadership of President Lula da Silva, a well-known leftist who was arrested several times as a union leader? Was it through the radicalism of today's modern left? Was it through that 'never take no for an answer' that the Left so prides itself on when it goes out on these silly campaigns to save spotted owls? Was it through the anti-Yankee attitude of President Chavez over in Caracas? Or through the audacity of hope presented by a certain U.S. candidate?
No. Brazil's President is very passionate about his beliefs and he agrees, as does this writer, with some of President Chavez's beliefs of principle. However, he disagrees with the practice, as does this writer, of goading potential allies into a state of disaccord over slight ideological disagreements. Are there some nations that have wronged our continent? Yes, but though their flame is finally being extinguished, those nations remain relatively powerful, and we must use - yes, use - their power without pity and regret and we must do what is necessary to make those nations help us grow to prosperity, even if it is at the direct loss of power for those other nations. And they know we are doing it.
They are not stupid. They know we will use them for our benefit and to their detriment, and they will try to turn the tables because they believe they still have the upper hand and thus they will fall deaf to warnings, but we do not care, because we know who is stronger now, and we know that they will let themselves be used because, though they will never admit it, least of all to themselves, they need us: We are a market.
Brazil has done this in a most honorable fashion by allowing the U.S. to help Brazil under the wrongful belief that Brazil was offering a different path than that offered by Venezuela, and the U.S. had no choice. The U.S. cannot tolerate Venezuela doing, and saying, what it is doing, and saying - which is unfortunate because some of President Chavez's jokes have been quite humorous. But Brazil is not actually offering a different path.
Brazil is not offering a different path than that offered by Venezuela and Cuba before her; Brazil is simply offering a more pragmatic approach toward the same goal. Brazil is working slowly and quietly, without fanfare, without comedy, without the insane passion of some others, and Brazil is doing what they thought impossible even in the 1980s: Replacing the abusive behemoth with a genuinely benevolent hegemony that is welcomed by all in South America because this time, as never was the case before, the hegemon is one of our sisters, and the one most apt to protect us.
Sure, Brazil is not taking hegemony over Central America and Brazil would not dream of attempting to tell Mexico what to do. But Brazil has her own opening to the Pacific, so Panama is irrelevant: Peru's Inter-Oceanic Highway.
There is something very wrong with the power structure of our world today, but with pragmatism, this can be corrected and today, as was never the case in the past, the voiceless are taking up deafening cries of defiance marked by something else also never before seen in global politics: Genuine care for the global poor, because the poor are what this entire power play is all about for those who were once voiceless, just as profit is what is was all about for those who are accustomed to roaring.
So now, you tell me: Who will win? Those representing humanity, or those looking for profit? I know who I think will win, and for that reason I support the pragmatic approach being employed by Brazil, and also by Argentina and Chile and Mexico and Peru and Uruguay, in our struggle toward global equality and toward a time when we Latin Americans will finally take orders from no one - and what we will do with that time... Well, if you can't guess or are not sure, then I probably should not be the one to tell you. Let's just say that the spotted owls are not part of what we will do when that time comes.
