France's Threats
by Jorge Vargas
France is a nation that throughout history has given the world a vast variety of very important cultural, scientific, and political contributions, although perhaps not as many as some in France would like to believe.
Two hundred years ago, France was a force to be reckoned with not only in the continent of Europe but throughout the world, as Napoleon's armies ravaged western Europe, threatened Great Britain, and held Spain and Portugal as hostages. One hundred years after the Napoleonic era France was nowhere near what it had once been and, without anyone truly knowing it at the time, Germany would soon prove that France's military and political clout was simply not up to par.
Since the world wars, France, which found itself all but destroyed after Germany's invasion, has essentially dedicated herself to diplomacy, trying - sometimes successfully, other times not - to serve as a sort of conscience and hamper on the United States of America, a nation that quickly surpassed Europe's military, economic, and political clout in the 1940s.
The last time that France was involved in a miitary action that was a complete success was during the Persian Gulf War of the 1990s, and French participation was not at all significant during that conflict. In the past twenty years, France as a singular nation-state, excluding its actions as a member of the EU-27, has not been able to impose conditions on any nation outside of Africa.
And, naturally, France within the European Union has exerted a great deal of influence but it has slowly seen its power crumble before the growing importance of a united Germany, a re-surging Spain, and a consistently powerful Great Britain.
And on a global level, while the United States and Great Britain have dedicated themselves to trying to control the Middle East, with the Chinese and the United States competing for hegemony of Latin America, with the Chinese, the United States, the Japanese and Australia vying for control of Asia, and, last of all, with Germany, Russia, and the United States attempting to control Eastern Europe, France has been left with sub- Saharan Africa as its sphere of influence. Sub-Saharan Africa: a region that is no doubt beautiful and which contains within it a people who are thirsting for development and growth, both of which will be achieved, but also a region that, for better or for worse, holds no signficant geopolitical value.
Naturally, some politicians within France are either not seeing what the rest of the world has come to accept or are simply refusing to accept what they are seeing. France as a unitary actor is not a nation with a great deal of geopolitical or military importance, and its economy, though strong, is thwarted in comparison with the surging economies of some of its neighbors. Furthermore, France as an actor within the EU is limited by the fact that the EU is still an entity in the process of formation and which does not speak with a single voice on several issues, not to mention the fact that dreams of a European fighting force are, for now, mostly limited to small-scale actions on the European continent.
Yet, France's foreign minister has recently declared that France, and the world, must prepare for the 'worst possible outcome' with Iran in the case that Iran refuses to de-activate its nuclear program and thus renounce its nuclear pretensions: war. So far, on the Western side of the Atlantic, the United States has not yet made a declaration so strong, with President Bush stopping short at empty words and implications.
Of course, if there were a war with Iran, most of the world would agree that France would not be one of the chief protagonists. Surely, the United States would lead the charge, closely followed by Great Britain and, if the motives were made clearly enough, some other European partners and, perhaps although unlikely, Japan and Russia. France might just be the third largest troop contributor but the troop difference between France and the country ahead of it would be significant.
Now, it is likely that the French official made such a declaration to attempt to scare the Iranians into thinking that not even France will attempt to arbitrate once the United States has 'had enough.' Of course, the downside to that strategy is that now the United States has received the same message, meaning that the United States does not need to worry about another horrible public relations blunder like what occured prior to the Iraq invasion. So let's give some credit to French diplomacy for making a valiant effort.
However, one should point out, in no uncertain terms, that despite France's overwhelming cultural contributions, especially in past centuries, France is now, for better or worse, dependent on her European allies and would not be free to start any type of military operation so far away from the freed beaches of Normandy.
Perhaps it is high time for some of the former European powers to accept the role that others accept with pride: Middle power. Perhaps France should accept that despite the noise made prior to the Iraq invasion, there was an Iraq invasion and the noise, though it looked good, stopped at empty words. No one punished the United States and Great Britain. Who would dare?
Only those who can formidably contribute to the current situation that the Western nations are finding themselves locked into with Iran should interfere. Those who will not be protagonists in the affairs to come should likely concern themselves with other matters. There are troubles to deal with in Africa, after all.
