The Threat of Syrian Nuclear Weapons
by Shannon Geis
In April, the United States accused Syria not only of having nuclear weapons but of accepting assistance from North Korea in building these weapons. This has led the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) to request the right to investigate these allegations. After denying the agency several times, Syria has finally agreed to allow the IAEA to investigate from June 22 to June 24, a very short time considering the kind of allegations Syria is facing.
Syria has consistently denied having any nuclear weapons program at all , and it has also denied the allegations that North Korea has been assisting the country in a weapons program. However, several actions taken by Syria have made the Syrian government seem quite guilty. The entire situation has not been a very straightforward ordeal. All parties involved have been somewhat guarded with their actions. The IAEA has chastised Syria, the United States, and Israel for their actions regarding these supposed nuclear weapons.
Syria, if the allegations are correct, has not fulfilled its obligation as any state with comprehensive (nuclear) safeguard agreements to report the planning and construction of any nuclear facility to the International Atomic Energy Agency, according to a representative of the agency.
Israel has been chastised by the agency for bombing the site of the supposed nuclear reactor in September of 2007. This bombing, apparently to preempt an attack from Syria, demolished the reactor just before it was put into use and before the IAEA had any opportunity to analyze the procedures taking place. It also allowed Syria to quickly clean up what was left of the structure and build another building on top of the site. This adds to Syria's image of guilt, by appearing to remove evidence.
Israel also had photos of the inside of the supposed reactor, which were given to the United States. The US used these pictures to deduce that North Korea was involved with the planning and construction of the nuclear reactors because of the similarity in construction between the reactor in Syria and one in Yongbyon, North Korea. However, the United States did not make this information known until April, although this information could have been known by the US as far back as 2002.
Just as serious as the idea of Syria with nuclear weapons are the motives behind the actions of the three states that are most directly involved in the situation. It is especially important to understand this situation from the context of politics in the Middle East and the current effort for peace between traditionally unfriendly nations.
Now that Syria and Israel are discussing a peace agreement, the claim that Syria could have been assisted by North Korea in building a nuclear reactor intended to create weapons, along with the upcoming visit by the IAEA, puts Syria in a much more compromising position. However, the criticism Israel has received from the IAEA for bombing the supposed nuclear reactor does not look good on Israel's part.
Lebanon, which has been dealing with a political stalemate for the last 18 months and which for the last six months has been without a president, has also had its conflicts with Syria. But now a new president has been installed promising to strengthen Lebanon's ties with its neighbor. With Syria being scrutinized about its building of nuclear reactors, now may be the time to work out a compromise and reinforce political ties.
But one striking question that comes to mind when considering this situation is why the United States took such a long time to make the information it had on Syria known. Why didn't the US release this information when the US government received it and noticed the connections at least seven months ago? Perhaps US intelligence was worried about acting on too little information or overestimating Syria's threat, similar to what happened with Iraq. But being too careful can be just as bad a quality as jumping the gun. Luckily, it seems that Syria does not currently have the capability of creating nuclear weapons but we shall see when the IAEA finishes its investigations.
