Putin Tightens His Grip
by Shannon Geis
Pakistan's Pervez Musharraff, who won the presidential election boycotted by the opposition by 98% of the vote, fired the Chief Justice and put the rest of the Supreme Court under house arrest when they decided against allowing him to rule as President and General of the military. Venezuela's Hugo Chavez announced his plan to abolish presidential term limits in order to ensure that he can be elected again. These are both serious situations with serious consequences. Both of these countries are recently developed democracies and are vulnerable to this type of corruption.
While both of these situations are dangerous to the idea of democracy, there is another potential situation that could cause significantly more danger. It is the current situation in Russia. Russian President Vladimir Putin is the one we should be worried about. He is an intelligent and ruthless leader. Although his methods are slow, he is willing to take the time to be thorough. He has over the past few years slowly been tightening his grip on the Russian government. He is constantly gaining more authority. The past month has shown the power that he truly has over the government.
The Russian Parliament elections will be held in early December and it is certain that Putin's United Russia party will dominate. Putin has taken great pains to ensure it. He has implemented strict new election rules that will guarantee a United Russia victory. Putin has put severe controls on what it takes to get a party recognized by the government. The Kremlin has a final say in which parties exist and which do not. It has begun to dismantle the parties it believes do not have enough public support. Of course, this dismantling has primarily happened to the parties least supportive of the Kremlin.
Many of the election rule changes stem from the 2003 elections. In these elections, half of the Duma (the lower house of parliament) was elected based on geographical regions and the other half on party support. Although the vote heavily favored United Russia, there were liberals and independents that were able to maintain their hold, mostly because of grassroots campaigns in geographical districts.
After the election, Putin declared that the government structure needed to be centralized. He pushed legislation removing the geographic districts in parliamentary elections and abolishing elections for regional governors. Now the Russian population will only be able to vote for parties, parties that the Kremlin allows, in the parliamentary election in December.
Putin has also stalled in allowing observers to monitor the election process this year. He finally put out invitations at the beginning of November, giving observers only a month to prepare for the election. He has decreased the number of observers allowed from key organizations, such as the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe. They will only be able to send 70 observers compared to the 450 observers that were sent for the 2003 election. Instead he has invited 300 to 400 observers from groups like the monitoring arm of the Commonwealth of Independent States, a group of former Soviet republics.
In order to increase United Russia's chances even more, Putin has announced that he will lead the United Russia party ticket. Although his support already assures the party a comfortable victory, Putin taking the top spot all but guarantees United Russia a huge majority in parliament. Putin can do this because Russian electoral law allows him to be on the party list without taking a seat. Putin is a popular president. Russians have seen more economic and social freedoms under Putin than under Communism, especially with soaring oil prices. This fact makes Putin much more influential within the government.
But if Putin's popularity isn't enough, there have been reports to the Washington Post from members of the Parliament that "Russian regional governors, who are appointed by the president, have been instructed to deliver no less than 70 percent of the vote for United Russia." This would obviously guarantee an overwhelming United Russia majority in the Parliament. This would also allow Putin to do what he wants without any resistance from the Parliament at all.
This is a should be a serious concern for Russia and the Western world because if the Parliament becomes overwhelmingly seated by United Russia, there are two very threatening speculations about what will happen next. After this year, Putin's second term as president will be over and under the Russian constitution, he is not allowed to seek a third. One speculation is that he will become the Prime Minister of Parliament. While this position is not very powerful currently, Putin could easily increase the power of the position turn the Presidency into a primarily ceremonial role if he has enough support.
The other speculation is that with an overwhelming majority in the Parliament, Putin would be able to amend the constitution and abolish the term limits currently set on the Presidency. Thus allowing him the opportunity to remain President for an undetermined number of terms. He has the public approval ratings to continue to win the elections and it is apparent that he could have that kind of sway on the Parliament. He has had no troubles so far in altering the election process.
If this comes about, Europe and the United States have something to worry about. Russia is not like most of the developing countries struggling to maintain democracy. Russia has proven that it can be a force that needs to be reckoned with. The more power Putin gains over the government, the stronger and stronger the Russian threat grows. As a member of the Parliament said to the New York Times, "The Parliament has been brought down to the level of a servant, seving the ruling bureaucracy." And worst of all, unlike the other countries currently facing a threat to their democracies, Putin has the support of the Russian people.
